Tue 6 Jul 2010
Um mercado estratégico de 126 milhões de consumidores no Leste da África
Posted by robertocordeiro under obras
Lula acaricia a cabeça de um leão empalhado sendo observado pelo presidente Kibaki. Foto: ricardo Stuckert/PR
Em visita ao Quênia, o presidente Lula voltou a destacar a importância do mercado do Leste da África para produtos brasileiros. Após se reunir com o presidente do Quênia, Mwai Kibaki, no Palácio do Governo, em Nairóbi, Lula observou que os países do bloco são um importante atrativo para empresas brasileiras, já que têm população de 126 milhões de consumidores.
Estou realizando um sonho de poder visitar o Quênia para descobrir a quantidade de oportunidade que existe para fazer negócio. Saber aquilo que podemos comprar, aquilo que podemos vender e aquilo que podemos produzir juntos, inclusive com transferência de tecnologia.
Lula iniciou a agenda de trabalho participando de reunião com autoridades quenianas. Numa das salas do palácio, o presidente tocou num leão empalhado e fez pose para foto. Depois, comentou que o “leão estava manso”. Em seguida à reunião, se deu a assinatura de atos na área externa do palácio. Kibaki proferiru o primeiro discurso, enaltecendo a importância do Brasil e do trabalho que vem sendo desenvolvido no continente africano tendo o presidente Lula como uma das lideranças mundiais na defesa da África.
Em seguida, o presidente Lula começou o discurso dando ênfase à desclassificação da seleção brasileira. Segundo ele, que desembarcará na próxima quinta-feira (8/7), em Pretória, na África do Sul, cada instante que percebe se aproximar do destino pensa sobre como se comportará no próximo domingo (11/7), data da final da Copa do Mundo 2010. Por isso, explicou que torcerá para a seleção do Uruguai, que enfrenta hoje o time da Holanda, responsável pela retirada da seleção brasileira nas quartas de final.
Espero que entre os jogadores tenha pelo menos um que possua ligação com o Brasil. O Uruguai tem o Loco Abreu, que joga no Botafogo. A Alemanha tem um brasileiro naturalizado.
O presidente brasileiro falou também que ainda não havia se recuperado da desclassificação prematura. “Gostaria de dizer que ainda não estou nos meus melhores dias. Como o senhor sabe, o Brasil foi desclassificado. Perdeu para a Holanda. Depois perderam a Argentina e o Paraguai. Agora só temos o nosso querido Uruguai representando o Mercosul. Nada contra os europeus, mas tudo favorável ao Mercosul”, disse ao acrescentar que o time brasileiro possuia na Copa do Mundo um excelente goleiro, uma boa defesa e “tomamos dois gols de cabeça, sendo um contra”. E continuou: “Temos esperança que em 2014, como anfitriões, a gente possa ganhar o campeonato”.
Após a reunião no State House, Lula se deslocou até um hotel para participar da cerimônia de encerramento do Seminário Empresarial Brasil-Quênia. Em seguida, a delegação brasileira participa de almoço oferecido pelo presidente Kibaki.
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Brincando de democracia
Por Igor Ojeda
Só mesmo Hillary Clinton e a grande mídia internacional e nacional acreditam que o golpe de Estado em Honduras acabou e que, agora, a democracia no país centro-americano reina novamente. Na verdade, não acreditam: tanto a secretária de Estado dos EUA quanto a imprensa hegemônica sabem muito bem o que acontece por lá. Mas preferem fazer de conta que não é com eles.
E o que acontece por lá? O mesmo desde 28 de junho de 2009, quando o presidente constitucional Manuel Zelaya foi deposto. Ou seja, o terrorismo de Estado contra os opositores ao golpe continua prevalecendo. Mas, para Hillary, assassinatos, torturas e detenções ilegais não são motivos suficientes para a Organização dos Estados Americanos (OEA) não aceitar Honduras de volta, como ela prega há meses, com o argumento de que as eleições gerais de novembro restabeleceram a democracia no país.
Com ou sem democracia, o fato é que, passado um ano, os setores golpistas são os grandes vencedores desse imbróglio que envolveu diversos países do continente, especialmente o Brasil e sua embaixada em Honduras. Apesar do surgimento da valorosa e heróica Frente Nacional de Resistência Popular (FNRP) – um dos maiores e mais bem organizados movimentos da história de Honduras –, Manuel Zelaya não retornou ao país, como exigia o Itamaraty, e a classe política, econômica e militar que arquitetou o quartelaço continua sendo a dona do Estado hondurenho.
O gabinete montado pelo atual presidente Porfirio “Pepe” Lobo – ele próprio apoiador do golpe – é composto, em grande parte, por golpistas ou indicados por estes. O Congresso e a Corte Suprema continuam sob controle ferrenho da oligarquia, que mantém forte presença em setores estratégicos, como a Hondutel – estatal hondurenha de telecomunicações, que, hoje, está sob o comando de ninguém menos que Romeo Vásquez Velásquez, ex-chefe do Estado Maior Conjunto das Forças Armadas quando da deposição de Zelaya – e, principalmente, nos corpos de segurança que dirigem a repressão, sob o pretexto do combate ao crime organizado.
Repressão seletiva
Mas, agora, preocupado com a repercussão internacional em tempos de internet, twitter, iphone e celular com câmera fotográfica e filmadora, o regime golpista decidiu “sofisticar” sua atuação. A repressão ficou mais seletiva: o alvo dos sequestros, prisões e assassinatos são os principais líderes e dirigentes do movimento de resistência ao golpe.
Um comunicado divulgado pela FNRP em 27 de junho deste ano afirma que, desde janeiro, quando Pepe Lobo tomou posse, pelo menos 310 casos de violações de direitos humanos foram denunciados, 21 pessoas foram assassinadas e 53 foram detidas ilegalmente. Os que não sofrem violências físicas, são processados judicialmente.
Por isso mesmo, a saída de cena oficial dos golpistas em janeiro – quando Pepe Lobo tomou posse – revelou-se uma hábil jogada. Além de se livrarem da classificação de “ditadores”, foi uma maneira de “lavar” o golpe e tentar ganhar o reconhecimento internacional para o novo regime. Afinal, a América Latina mudou. Ditaduras e golpes de Estado não são mais tolerados: a democracia está na ordem do dia no continente, mesmo que ela seja apenas formal, não importando se a sociedade como um todo é, de fato, democrática.
Mudou mesmo?
Mas, infelizmente, as coisas não mudaram tanto assim. É verdade que o golpe de junho de 2009 deixou evidente que os EUA já não exercem total controle sobre as ações dos demais países latino-americanos, como ficou explícito na expulsão de Honduras da OEA, na condenação quase unânime ao quartelaço e na própria postura vacilante e contraditória do governo estadunidense em relação ao ocorrido.
No entanto, a ação da oligarquia hondurenha mostrou também que, mesmo sob essa nova realidade vivida pelo continente, não se foi possível reverter uma situação, na teoria, fácil de ser revertida, dada a pouca margem de manobra que tinham os golpistas, no comando de um país de pequenas dimensões e influência geopolítica como Honduras.
Isso se explica, obviamente, pelo apoio dos EUA ao governo de fato. Se, por um lado, a diplomacia estadunidense anunciou a aplicação de tímidas sanções, como o bloqueio de passaportes e contas de alguns golpistas, por outro, insistiu em tratar (especialmente, Hillary Clinton) o assunto como um conflito entre duas partes equivalentes em força e em razão, quando, na verdade, o lado a se tomar era um só.
O golpe deixou claro, também, que a comovente retórica de Obama era nada mais que pura farsa – seja intencional, seja porque ele se vê de mãos atadas, não importa. Dois meses depois de o presidente estadunidense proclamar “novas relações com a América Latina” em Trinidad e Tobago, Manuel Zelaya era deposto com o apoio decisivo da embaixada dos EUA em Honduras e de agências estadunidenses de “apoio à democracia”, como USAID e NED.
Contra-ofensiva reacionária
Numa perspectiva mais pessimista, mas a ser considerada, a consolidação do golpe em Honduras pode significar, ainda, o esboço de uma espécie de contra-ofensiva da direita institucional no continente latino-americano. (Digo “institucional” porque a elite econômica mais “moderna”, como as transnacionais e os bancos, não chegaram a perder muito de seu poder, inclusive sob governos mais radicais, como os de Bolívia e Venezuela que, apesar dos inegáveis avanços, ainda não conseguiram promover grandes rupturas no campo da economia).
Ela já recuperou terreno no Chile, com a vitória eleitoral de Sebastián Piñera sobre a candidatura da Concertação (aqui, não cabe entrar no mérito de quão à esquerda são ou eram alguns governos, como, por exemplo, o de Michelle Bachelet). Na Colômbia, um dos principais responsáveis pela criminosa política de segurança do governo Uribe, o ex-ministro da Defesa, Juan Manuel Santos, foi eleito com folga em 20 de junho deste ano. Na Venezuela, Hugo Chávez e seu PSUV correm o risco de perder várias cadeiras na Assembleia Nacional, nas eleições legislativas de setembro (o que já aconteceu com o casal Kirchner, em junho do ano passado). E, no Paraguai, os avanços prometidos por Fernando Lugo continuam a ser barrados no parlamento, totalmente dominado pela oligarquia tradicional.
Por isso, o peso do Brasil na conjuntura latino-americana continuará sendo muito importante. Pois, se, por um lado, a política externa do governo Lula trabalha arduamente para abrir mercados nos países da América Latina para a vergonhosa atuação das transnacionais brasileiras (desenvolver e fortalecer um capitalismo brasileiro com inserção mundial parece ser um dos projetos centrais do governo do PT), por outro, a diplomacia do Itamaraty tem sido fundamental para conter determinadas tentativas de desestabilização de governos progressistas na região.
Igor Ojeda é editor de internacional do semanário Brasil de Fato. Entre outubro de 2007 e outubro de 2008, foi correspondente na Bolívia pela mesma publicação.
O “poste” acendeu a luz e Serra está no divã
Foi dada a largada para a campanha eleitoral. Qual a fotografia deste momento? Quem largou melhor? Vejamos as cinco últimas pesquisas divulgadas. Três dão dianteira para Dilma (Sensus, Ibope, Vox Populi,); uma para Serra (Datafolha). E uma nova do Ibope (4 de Julho) dá empate. Como é sabido, o staff serrista tinha o prognóstico de razoável vantagem para o tucano no início de julho. Não aconteceu. Diziam que Dilma era um “poste”. Pois, então, o poste acendeu a luz.
Por Adalberto Monteiro*
Na escolha do vice, Dilma trouxe o PMDB, grande e importante legenda. Serra patrocinou a maior presepada da campanha eleitoral até a presente data. Queria Aécio e teve de contentar-se com um ilustre desconhecido. Tentou-se “turbinar” Índio da Costa. Que ele vai atrair o voto da juventude, que vai ajudar seduzir o eleitorado fluminense, e outras lorotas.
Neste processo, primeiro, humilhou além do limite da honra os Demos. Circulou que Serra, todo probo, não aceitaria “um partido de mensaleiros” na vice. Seria uma chapa puro-sangue. Álvaro Dias, o predileto, com a jactância de sempre, apressadamente arrotou caviar. A chapa Serra/Índio da Costa simboliza a coesão, ou melhor, o ajuntamento da direita neoliberal. A plutocracia e o conservadorismo, para além da incompetência de Serra, jamais permitiriam que a solda se rompesse.
Dilma terá o apoio de 10 partidos: PT, PMDB, PDT, PCdoB, PSB, PTC, PSC, PRB, PR e PTN. Serra arregimentou 6: PSDB, DEM, PTB, PPS, PMN e PTdoB. Quanto ao tempo de TV, a petista terá quase 11 minutos e o candidato tucano pouco mais de 7 minutos. Quanto aos palanques, o placar de candidaturas aos governos estaduais aponta 40 para Dilma, 30 para Serra.
Dilma terá em sua campanha “o gás” da militância de esquerda, os ativistas da ampla maioria dos sindicatos de trabalhadores e dos movimentos sociais. Já Serra tem esse campo contra si em consequência do autoritarismo de seu governo e da conduta de seu partido de criminalização dos movimentos sociais. O monopólio midiático não se refere “ao fator militância”. Mas, milhares e milhares suando a camisa por uma causa na qual acreditam, podem, sim, fazer, a diferença. E, não se trata apenas dos militantes de carteirinha. O que por si só já é precioso. É o engajamento do povo mesmo.
Os tucanos trataram a adesão do PTB como feito relevante. De fato, não é nada desprezível. Mas, terão de enfrentar as dissidências dessa legenda e “o jeito de ser” de seu presidente. Roberto Jefferson qualificou o DEM como “merda” e culpou César Maia (a quem chamou de “melindrosa”) pela escolha do famoso desconhecido Índio da Costa.
Candidato no divã
Na largada, Serra é um candidato no divã. Vive crise de identidade. Nos primórdios, pressionado pela popularidade do governo, passou a derramar elogios a Lula e até tentou como um leão de um desenho animado de outrora “uma saída pela esquerda”. A pantomima não deu certo. Desagradou a seus partidários e ao que parece colheu pouco ou nada do lado de cá. Por isso, a quem interessar possa já fez autocrítica. “BC vai continuar como está”. Na Convenção que oficializou sua candidatura, atacou o presidente Lula. Todavia, seus pares ainda demonstram insatisfação. Fernando Henrique Cardoso, em artigo de 4 de julho, cobrou dos candidatos mais transparência. Segundo ele, os postulantes precisam dizer ao país o que pensam. Ataca Dilma, óbvio, mas parece insatisfeito com o discurso “camaleônico” de seu pupilo e ex-ministro.
Essa crise de identidade, justiça seja feita, não vem de uma debilidade, digamos, de caráter do candidato. Vem da realidade. Vejamos: 78%, 80% aprovam o governo Lula. Dados do último Datafolha: 34% dos que consideram o governo ótimo ou bom, por ora, tencionam votar no candidato do PSDB. Se o tucano “bater” no presidente Lula, criticar seu governo, pode perder votos. Todavia, se não demarcar, se não criticar, que diabo de candidato de oposição é esse? A “bruxaria” dos marqueteiros de Serra ainda não encontrou solução para este teorema. Há recompensa gorda para quem ajudar achá-la.
Dilma tem esta questão resolvida. É a candidata da continuidade. E para ela: “continuidade, é avançar, avançar e avançar”. “Para o Brasil seguir mudando”, diz seu slogan. A identidade está nítida e a “legitimidade” é garantida por quem detém 78% de apoio popular. A imagem de Dilma estará colada na imagem de Lula. E, progressivamente, sua história de luta pela democracia, seus méritos, seu compromisso e sua competência para realizar conquistas ainda maiores, vão se tornar dominantes na comunicação da campanha.
Serra tem como patrono Fernando Henrique Cardoso. Todavia, para vencer precisa renegá-lo, enxotá-lo. No dia da festa tucana que ungiu o ex-governador de São Paulo, FHC foi despachado para longe. Terá condições de fazer isso durante a jornada toda? Na recente crise com o DEM, FHC foi requisitado às pressas. Talvez, a campanha PSDB-DEM consiga “banir” a imagem de FHC. Mas, o receituário neoliberal enrustido, escancarado, reciclado ou à moda antiga, dará o tom do discurso de Serra. Impossível um tucano com canto de canário.
Tudo que foi dito acima insinua que Dilma “já ganhou”? Não. Longe disto. O que temos pela frente é uma verdadeira guerra política. Um confronto de campos políticos antagônicos, sujeito a sobressaltos. Mas, não há como negar que na largada Dilma sai na frente. Enquanto isso, Serra e seus marqueteiros se debatem na solução do dito teorema. Hoje, é um candidato claudicante. Oportunista, quer agradar a todos e com isso corre o risco de não agradar ninguém.
Adalberto Monteiro é presidente da Fundação Maurício Grabois e editor da revista Princípios
Fonte: Portal da Fundação Maurício Grabois
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